The Iranians have proven beyond dispute that they are capable of delivering large-warhead hypersonic strikes with high accuracy. And while it remains to be seen how many of these top-shelf missiles they truly possess and what their rate of production is, the bottom line is that Iran has achieved a major strategic victory which carries a strong deterrence effect in its wake. With each passing month, the Iranians will grow stronger – and the Israelis will become more desperate to try to do something about it. I doubt making peace will be on their agenda. Will Schryver, military analyst, Substack
If Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel would never have launched its attack on June 13. That is the one irrefutable fact that should guide Iranian decision-making in the future. Nukes equal security. It’s that simple.
Iranian leaders still oppose the development of nukes for religious reasons. They think that any weapon that unavoidably kills millions of innocent people cannot be morally justified. But this is not the right way to look at the issue. The reason Iran needs nukes is to save lives not to end them. Iran is not looking to expand its borders or invade other countries, but to ensure the safety of its people and the continuation of its civilization. With that in mind, it needs an arsenal that will deter foreign aggressors who use their access to nuclear weapons to advance their own foreign policy objectives.
Israel can only be deterred by superior firepower, that should be clear by now. Had Israel known that Iran had a stockpile of nukes at its disposal, they never would have launched their decapitation operation that assassinated numerous scientists, military leaders and politicians. By failing to develop nuclear weapons, Iran invited Israel’s aggression. Iran’s leaders must accept responsibility for that failure. Had they acted differently and developed the weaponry required for the country’s defense, there would have been no 12-day war. Iran’s perceived vulnerability prompted Israeli adventurism. This is from an article by Reuters on Wednesday:
Netanyahu wants to use more force, a source familiar with the Israeli leader’s thinking said, compelling Tehran—to the point of government collapse if necessary…. Netanyahu wants nothing less than the Libya model for Iran, the source said. That means Iran fully dismantling its nuclear and missile facilities under strict oversight, and renouncing uranium enrichment on its soil even for civilian needs.
Israel is seeking not diplomacy but regime change, Western and regional officials have said. And Netanyahu knows he needs at least a green light from the White House—if not direct backing—to carry out further operations if Tehran refuses to relinquish its nuclear ambitions, they said…..
For Israel, the fallback option is clear, the person familiar with Netanyahu’s thinking said: a policy of sustained containment through periodic strikes to prevent any nuclear resurgence. In the wake of its air war against Iran, Israel has reasserted itself as the region’s unrivaled military power, more willing than ever to use force and more capable of doing so with precision and relative impunity….
Netanyahu sees a fleeting strategic opportunity, one that demands acceleration, not hesitation, the source close to him said. In his calculus, the time to strike harder is now, before Iran regains its footing, the source said. US, Israel diverge on how to pursue Iran endgame after strikes, diplomats say, Reuters
Iran represents the last obstacle blocking the Zionist dream of a Greater Israel expanding across the Middle East with Jerusalem as its Capitol. Netanyahu will not be deterred from his lifelong ambition of defeating Iran and bringing the resource-rich country under his control.
The current ceasefire is a temporary pause in the hostilities that Israel is using to rebuild his defenses and prepare for the next phase of the war. As you can see from the excerpt above, Netanyahu and his war cabinet are still focused on disarming Iran, toppling its government and obliterating the country the same way they did in Iraq, Syria and Libya. This, in fact, is why Bibi traveled to Washington DC this week, to tell Trump about the changes to his strategy and to request “a green light from the White House to carry out further operations if Tehran refuses to relinquish its nuclear ambitions.” Israel wants to be able to bomb Iran whenever it chooses (as it does in Lebanon and Syria) and wants to make sure that Trump “has its back”. Bibi believes that if he provokes Tehran with more air strikes, Iran will shower Israel with ballistic missiles forcing Uncle Sam to ride to the rescue. This is Israel’s operational strategy, to get the US to fight Israel’s war.
What the article doesn’t mention, is that Israel will not engage Iran in another slugfest unless it is sure that Iran’s ability to retaliate is curtailed. Netanyahu has repeatedly said that he is not going to “get into a war of attrition with Iran”. Iran is too well-armed for that. Thus, we must assume that Bibi plans to up-the-ante by either goading Trump into entering the war or by using low-yield, nuclear bunker buster bombs with the intention of scaring Iran into submission. Either way, Round 2 of the conflict is going to be much more destructive and lethal than Round 1. This is from Iran’s Deputy Assistant Coordinator of the Revolutionary Guard Ali Fazli:
For many years we have been waiting for the enemy’s attack and we were prepared to defend. The “Sejil” missile was unexpected for the enemy. We only used 25% of our missile capability in the recent war. We are today in our best condition in 45 years. We are prepared for long-term defense. We possess knowledge related to nuclear weapons, but our ideological principles do not permit us to use them. Armed forces decisions are not made momentarily, we are working on designing our files and plans. The Zionist entity focused its attacks on security centers in the last day of the war. We have not yet opened the door to any of the missile cities.@ME_Observer_
Bottom line: Iran has not yet used its best and most powerful ballistic missiles. It is patiently awaiting Israel’s next attack when it will unload the full force of its state-of-the-art hypersonic missile capability. We should not expect this confrontation to be a gradual tit-for-tat face-off in which both participants exchange blows like prize fighters in a boxing match. We are likely to see swarms of ballistic missiles screeching across the night-sky destroying all manner of military and civilian infrastructure including desalination plants, oil depots, hydroelectric plants, ammonia storage tanks, deep-water ports, international airports and perhaps even Dimona.
The damage could be so widespread and severe, that Israel will no longer survive as a “functioning, modern state”. Israel’s existence depends entirely on US support.